The Sacramento Kings received a rude welcome Tuesday evening in the City of Brotherly Love, losing 112-85 in a laugher. Rookie Jimmer Fredette got the call in place of the injured Marcus Thornton, scoring just seven points and handing out three assists in 24 minutes of play.
The 76ers finished with six players in double figures, led by veteran Elton Brand, who scored 21 points and grabbed 10 rebounds. DeMarcus Cousins scored 17 points and grabbed 10 rebounds for the visiting Kings, who start off their five-game road trip on the wrong foot.
Last season was the first year in which Kevin Martin was allowed to have the keys to the organization. He was coming off of a 23.7 points per game scoring season (good for sixth in the league) and shot over 40% from three-point land. He had a brand new contract extension of five years and just over $50 million and seemed to be ready to be the number one scoring option for this franchise. And when he was healthy, he handled that pressure just fine. He made over two three-pointers per game, got to the free throw line 10.3 times per game, and averaged a career-high 24.6 points per game. But he only played in 51 contests. In fact, over the past two seasons he’s missed 52 games and seen his season point total, field goal percentage, and efficiency field goal percentage decline each year of the past three.
He’s the cornerstone of the organization right now but there have to be doubts whether or not he should be the number one guy. And if you start to believe that his slight build will cause injuries, which overshadows his ability to rival Carmelo Anthony as the best pure scorer in the NBA, then is there a certain point you begin to consider dealing him in order to maximize the return? The Kings did something similar (although with a much different team makeup) years ago with Peja Stojakovic. At the time, the Kings were worried about having to overpay Peja. But the Kings aren’t locked into a bad contract by any means with Martin. His $44 million left over the next four years is a bargain for someone that can average the taller side of 20 points per game. But if you can get the type of return for Kevin Martin now, like the Kings did with Peja in acquiring Ron Artest, you have to entertain the option of trading him in order to keep the rebuilding process going.
Now, I realize how ridiculous this sounds. Why deal a guy with a manageable contract who scores this easily? There are two reasons. First, outside of Beno Udrih’s signing last summer, Geoff Petrie has been pretty good at acquiring guys through free agency. Assuming the Kings don’t overpay for a free agent this summer, they’re going to have an obscene amount of cap space in the vaunted summer of 2010. Adding an $11 million cushion to that already burgeoning cap space could be invaluable for someone like Petrie. Second, very few VPs in this league maximize the draft like Petrie has. So if you can acquire another high pick for Kevin Martin to go with the eventual cap space, why not do it?
I’m not saying that they absolutely should trade Kevin Martin. He’s obviously not over the hill or a part of the team that needs to be jettisoned. But in a situation like the Kings with the team having good picks, good cap flexibility and one of the best front offices in the league, keeping their options open to anything should be a must. And Kevin Martin is probably the guy that brings in the most value.
So I’ve come up with five potential trades that the Kings could do this summer in order to a) fix their issue at point guard, b) acquire more young talent to build with, and/or c) keep the cap space growing to add the bevy of talent available in 2010. These are not rumors by any means – simply ideas. And they’re all done with the assumption that Ricky Rubio is selected before the Kings are on the clock.
First Trade Idea: Wizards trade the 5th pick and Etan Thomas to the Kings for Kevin Martin.
This trade actually wouldn’t be able to happen until after July 1st due to a trade restriction with Etan Thomas’ contract. But the Kings could get the Wizards to draft whomever they wanted to get with the 5th selection and be able to rebuild their backcourt with two young players to grow and develop together. The Kings would take a definite hit in the first year of this deal in terms of talent, scoring and production. But they would benefit in the long run.
Sacramento would be able to select Jrue Holiday with the fourth pick to be their point guard of the future and put him side by side with James Harden. Harden is probably the best shooting guard in the draft despite the drool-worthy potential of guys like Demar DeRozan and Tyreke Evans. So the Kings would go into the 2009-2010 season with a young core of Jason Thompson, Spencer Hawes, Donte Greene, Jrue Holiday, Francisco Garcia, and James Harden. That’s not a bad core of six deep by any means and something the Kings could either let develop together like a young Portland team or trade away for veterans like Boston pulled off two years ago. Not to mention, they’d have well over $20 million in cap space next summer.
For Washington, they’d probably do it in order to jump at the chance of putting Jamison, Butler, Martin, and Arenas on the floor together.
Second Trade Idea: Bulls trade Kirk Hinrich and the 16th pick to the Kings for Kevin Martin and the 23rd pick.
This one seems a bit risky (and a bit of a stretch) but if the Kings believe that Tyreke Evans or James Harden is the best player available at 4 then they might be willing to take the steady hand at point with Kirk (along with his better contract) and moving up from 23 to 16. They’d clearly be giving up some talent by going from a good scorer like Martin to someone in Kirk Hinrich who has been one of the bigger disappointments in the past two seasons. But Hinrich’s defensive ability and solid passing could be big steps towards getting this team back towards respectability.
The trade gives the Kings one fewer year on the books and a declining cap figure, which would be easier to move in the future if Hinrich didn’t work out. Harden would probably be the smartest pick with the fourth pick then because of his scoring ability, which should make up some for the loss of Martin. Moving up from 23 to 16 could guarantee the Kings a much better player. Guys like Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, and Sam Young would definitely be in play. Or they could even load up their backup point guard option with Eric Maynor or Ty Lawson as some Kirk Hinrich buyer’s remorse insurance. That would leave this depth chart heading into free agency:
That is not a bad roster to add on a veteran or two. Or they could fill with veteran minimum contracts and wait to spend their cash next summer.
Third Trade Idea: Cavs trade Delonte West, Ben Wallace, and the 30th pick to the Kings for Kevin Martin, Andres Nocioni.
This is a trade idea that is more about clearing long-term cap relief while acquiring yet another pick AND a potentially very valuable role player. This would just about decimate the Kings for next year outside of a solid draft and a free agent or two. This trade would alleviate $13 million from the Kings cap next summer and give them roughly $30 million in space, assuming that they don’t sign more than one-year filler contracts this year. It would also give them three first round picks and four picks in the first 31. They could easily package the 23rd and 30th to move up in the draft. Perhaps a deal with Phoenix (because you know how they love to safe money on draft night) or Detroit to move into the top 15 with their second pick of the night would work out.
With those moves, you could draft Jrue Holiday with the fourth pick and someone like DeJuan Blair or Gerald Henderson with the 14th or 15th pick. Throw in someone like Toney Douglas, Wayne Ellington or Patrick Mills with the 31st pick and they’d have another good core of players.
PG- Jrue Holiday, Beno Udrih
SG- Delonte West, Gerald Henderson, Wayne Ellington
SF- Francisco Garcia, Donte Greene
PF- Jason Thompson, Kenny Thomas
C- Spencer Hawes
Having those guys with roughly $25 to $30 million dollars at their disposal the next summer could build not only a playoff team but a Top 6 team in the West.
Fourth Trade Idea: Spurs trade Manu Ginobili to the Kings for Kevin Martin and the 23rd pick.
Okay, at this point I’m kind of pulling straws here. The Spurs are concerned about Manu’s ankle injuries. They’ve allegedly been shopping him around but they’re denying those rumors. So what do the Kings get out of this? Manu is only going to want to play for a championship and the Kings won’t be that next year. Manu’s deal is up after this coming season and he’d 100% leave for a shot at another ring. Well, it gives the Kings that cap space from dealing Martin for an expiring contract. But if they’re not getting young talent for him in addition to the cap space, would it even be worth it?
The only other value that would come out of it is for the Kings to be the major player/facilitator at the trade deadline with Manu’s talent and expiring contract dangling in front of hungry GMs. They could add a lot of young assets and draft picks for Manu or deal him for a good veteran or two from a deeper contender who is looking or a homerun. They would have the league at their feet trying to pry the most valuable trade piece from their grip. It would put them in a major power position, in which a guy like Petrie could really add some positive pieces to the organization.
Again, this is probably a terrible idea and just a laughable trade thought. But it works under the CBA.
Fifth Trade Idea: Raptors trade Jose Calderon to the Kings for Kevin Martin.
This actually seems like the most fair for both sides trade to me. The Kings would end up getting a very good point guard, who’s paid a very manageable and fair salary for the next four seasons. They’d then be allowed to gamble on a shooting guard like Tyreke Evans or even Demar DeRozan and allow that player to develop with a very good distributor. The Raptors would do it because they could probably pair Kevin Martin and someone like Jonny Flynn in their backcourt. It’s kind of a win-win situation.
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So one more time to clarify, I would highly doubt that Kevin Martin is being bandied about in trade discussions right now and probably won’t be for years to come. But at a certain point, a guy becomes injury prone no matter how hard he tries to fight through it (like Kevin does). And Petrie wouldn’t be doing his job properly if he didn’t consider every player’s value.
I think everyone can agree that the biggest need for the Kings this off-season is at the point guard position. Sure there are some questions with the team’s small forward position since Andres Nocioni might be better served as a reserve and Donte Greene not being ready as of now to be named the starter. But with Beno Udrih’s regression from his promising 2007-2008 season campaign to his dreadful and frustrating 2008-2009 season, the glaring hole at the team quarterback position has been ominous.
They have a fascinating makeup for the team already as the rebuilding process chugs along. They have their own version of young big men that the Chicago Bulls attempted long ago (back when Tim Floyd wasn’t a complete embarrassment and they were relying heavily on two young, inexperienced big men) except these guys are a little more seasoned and have a lot better chance at realizing their potential due to great basketball skill sets. They also have a pure scorer from all over the floor with Kevin Martin and some nice pieces to come off the bench on the wings. But the direction on the court has been lacking since Mike Bibby was here and interested. So assuming that the Kings are going to try to find their next great point guard with the fourth pick in this draft, let’s review the players in play and try to figure out who has the best standing.
1. Ricky Rubio
Strengths: Passing, Vision, System Defense, Penetration, Basketball IQ, Length, Veteran approach to the game despite youth. Weaknesses: Outside Shooting, Getting off his shot in a quick manner, Sometimes tries to do too much, Strength, Slow first step.
Ricky is still the most intriguing prospect at the point guard position in this draft and if he can fall to Sacramento at #4, then there shouldn’t be much hesitation for Geoff Petrie in selecting him. He definitely has questions about his game, validity of international experience translating to the NBA, and whether or not the hype is legit. Brandon Jennings’ dismissive view towards Ricky’s ability, whether he meant it or not, had to bring up red flags throughout the league. But you can’t really forget or discount his play during the Olympics. Sure, Patty Mills played incredible against the U.S. and other teams during the Beijing Games and it isn’t shooting him up the draft boards but that doesn’t mean it should be the same for Ricky.
His attitude and demeanor on the court told a lot of people (including myself) everything we needed to know. He was fearless, confident, and not going to back down to the best point guards in the world. He held his own, made more good plays than mistakes and even seemed to be favored often over fellow countryman, Jose Calderon. It was kind of a contrast to what we’ve heard from his play in the international leagues in which he’s inconsistent. That creates the question of how much can we trust in coaches who manage player rotations like international Don Nelsons? Did Ricky deserve to sit all of those games and play inconsistent minutes? Was it an attempt to keep himself in doubt and the threat of a tough buyout more looming than it should be? Will he be able to come over a play this year?
Unfortunately, we won’t know the answers to those questions until he gets selected June 25th. And we probably will have to suffer through an inconsistent and tentative summer league season before we get real answers. But if the Kings can grab him with the fourth pick, Geoff Petrie will have put the rebuilding process ahead of the game.
NBA Comparison: Andre Miller without the postgame and a little more speed. Immediate Impact: Instant energy throughout the fanbase will be the byproduct of drafting Ricky Rubio. He’s the player that the fans want and something this franchise could really use to put them back in the national spotlight (see: Jason Williams, circa 1998).
2. Brandon Jennings
Strengths: Extremely fast end-to-end, Great explosiveness, Great at playing passing lanes, Good court vision, Good play-maker, Good range on the jumpshot. Weaknesses: Natural fadeaway on his jumper, Small for an NBA point guard, Forces the spectacular, Very streaky.
So what do we do with this Brandon Jennings situation? Apparently, he came into the point guard workout with Jonny Flynn and Jrue Holiday and raised hell. A lot of people came away impressed with Flynn but more came away thinking that Jennings was the toast of the outing. Then he follows that up with a post-workout interview in which he basically discredits everything that Ricky Rubio has been lauded for and says that he’s all hype. He tried to take it back on his Twitter account but once it’s out there, that’s all anyone is going to think about. Some people see that as competitiveness and some see it as arrogant, cocky bravado.
When Jennings played overseas this past season, he didn’t dazzle anybody with numbers but he didn’t completely wet the bed either. He never shot the three well (20.7% in Italian League, 26.8% in Euroleague). He shot really well from the field for such a young, foreign player with 47.9% in the Italian League and 45.7% in the Euroleague. His assist to turnover ratio wasn’t great this past year but he was such a work in progress in so many facets of his game and life that he seemed to handle the pressure and inconsistency of knowing when he’ll play about as well as any teenager could.
There’s no questioning that he has the raw skill set and athleticism to become a really good point guard in the league but will he let his attitude of dismissing his competition overtake his work ethic? That’s what teams have to figure out.
NBA Comparison: Nick Van Exel Immediate Impact: I’d be shocked if he made a difference right away. But as his rookie season progresses, you’ll see him make great strides.
3. Jrue Holiday
Strengths: Size (he’s the biggest point guard in the draft), Quick first move, Great defensive mindset and fundamentals, Great decision-maker, Rebounds extremely well, Solid passer. Weaknesses: Not a good shooter off the dribble, Not a real good shooter period, Not a great dribbler, Could end up being a defensive-minded shooting guard more than a point.
Sometimes, your first impression ends up being your favorite. And that’s the situation we could have with the Sacramento Kings. Jrue Holiday was their first major workout for the top guard prospects and the Kings front office and scouting department came away very impressed with his attitude and skill set. The first thing you notice with him is his extremely long wingspan. He looks like Stretch Armstrong with his arms extended and his body low into a defensive stance. At 6’4”, it almost feels like he’s still taller/longer than you when he’s digging in defensively. He’s a natural born leader in a way that GMs desperately want out of a young point guard.
But there are plenty of drawbacks with Jrue too. He was rarely a point guard in high school. He often played the shooting guard position and helped adopt a dangerous backcourt with two point guard mentalities. Even in the workouts by himself, Holiday was inconsistent with his jumper. It was a fairly rough sight to see as he made moves off the dribble and pulled up for a jump shot and his set shooting was above average but nothing that’s going to make you push aside someone like Dana Barros from your memory bank. And then there’s the fact that he doesn’t explode to the rim. He’s a bit of a slow jumper. He has the strength to finish off contact in the lane but if he’s too slow to get there in the first place, he could end up giving a lot of offensive fouls.
He’s not a bad pick by any means. The Kings loved him and are still highly considering him. There are some rumblings that they’ve floated out the idea of them drafting Jennings or Tyreke Evans to keep other teams uneasy when their final answer to David Stern’s question on draft night is certainly Jrue.
NBA Comparison: Rajon Rondo with out the explosive leaping. Immediate Impact: I think he’s a guy that will have a type of impact like Russell Westbrook. He probably needs two months to begin to put it together and by the end of the season, you don’t care if he’s a true point guard. You just want him on the court.
4. Jonny Flynn Strengths: One of the quickest guards in the draft, Great at getting into the lane, Has a variety of shots, Fantastic mid-range game, High volume scorer, Great leader and heart. Weaknesses: He’s really small, Has three-point range but takes some bad threes, Tries to do too much when his team gets down, Too many turnovers.
The first thing you notice about this guy is his heart. He has that certain Allen Iverson-level of killing himself to win that you just don’t see in many players. This guy is one of the few in the league that doesn’t have to learn how important winning is or how put out extra effort. He’s always 100% to the wall and ready to do whatever it takes to win. It’s something you can’t teach. It’s something that’s a little cliché. But it’s something that Flynn possesses.
Now, does he have his drawbacks? Of course. He wants to win so badly that he often puts too much onus on his shoulders and tries to cut deficits or win games by himself. He can make a lot of bad decisions and force some really tough shots while trying to will his team to win. It’s something that he has to learn the time and place for and not just try to do everything on his own. As the future point guard of an NBA team, trusting his teammates and trusting his system is an aspect of his game that he’ll have to improve. And his size with that mentality can make it even harder for him to succeed at times.
So for GMs and scouts alike, they have to decide where this kid fits in. Is he more D.J. Augustin or a 45% version of Allen Iverson? Will he be able to run a team or become another Eddie House? Does he have a high volume of shots to jack up or can he figure out his times to shoot? Personally, with the fourth pick in the draft, I don’t think you can have those questions with the guy you take (see: Dajuan Wagner).
NBA Comparison: T.J. Ford with a better outside shot. Immediate Impact: He’s the type of guy that can bring energy into an organization. With such a young team like the Kings, he could motivate them to win more early but end up burning himself out by February.
So what does this all mean? It means that the Kings have plenty of options for the point guard position. Clearly, the best-case scenario is Rubio passing through the first three picks and falling into Geoff Petrie’s lap like a small child with oodles of potential. They believe in Jrue Holiday but were impressed by an unexpected great showing when Jennings showed up Flynn and Holiday in a workout before taking “inadvertent” shots at Rubes. And with the other three point guards, they have the perfect position to move down in the draft, pick up an asset for the roster and still get one of their guys.
Much like Jim Carrey described the Information Superhighway in The Cable Guy, “the possibilities are endless!”
