I received this email from Connor, a reader, wondering about Michael Beasley and the “everything must go” sale the Miami Heat are having on his behalf.
After watching the draft Thursday night and watching teams like the Bulls take desperate measures to get cap room, I thought since the Kings don’t look to be a major player in this year’s free agency could they take advantage of this? I then came across an article that the Heat are trying desperately to get rid of Michael Beasley’s contract, So wouldn’t it be a smart move for the Kings to add a young talented forward with just the cost of taking on his contract? I’m sure the Heat would have a very reduced price for Beasley. To get rid of Hinrich the Bulls threw in a 1st round pick as well. Is this scenario even conceivable? If Miami is really desperate to get rid of Beasley what is stopping the Kings from doing this?
Connor brings up an intriguing idea. Using the lure of free agency that Miami has decided to reshape their franchise with against them in order to pilfer assets from the organization. A team like the Sacramento Kings – rebuilding by acquiring young talent and future assets – is in perfect position to do something like this.
The problem though is figuring out where Michael Beasley fits in with the future of this organization. The asking price would be relatively small. The Kings would actually be doing Miami a favor by acquiring the #2 pick in the 2008 draft and absorbing his relatively small contract (two years, $11.2 million). In return, a conditional second round pick would be the likely asking price and even if it wasn’t conditional, the Kings could offer up a pick in 2015 or later when the Kings should be firmly cemented in the playoffs for years to come.
However, the Kings would have to figure out where he fits in.
The frontcourt is very loaded and primed to be a presence/strength for the Kings this year. Here’s the tentative depth chart for the small forward, power forward and center positions:
C: DeMarcus Cousins, Samuel Dalembert, Hassan Whiteside
PF: Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Jon Brockman
SF: Donté Greene, Omri Casspi
Doesn’t look like there’s a lot of room in there for a #2 pick who hasn’t even turned 22 years old yet. Michael Beasley is probably best used as a power forward and with Carl Landry, Jason Thompson and the Brockness Monster all trying to carve out playing time for their respective résumés, it seems unlikely he’d get a lot of run at the 4. And he’s obviously not a center so he’s unlikely to get any burn at the center position.
So would it behoove the Kings to acquire Michael Beasley for next to nothing and then try to slide him into the small forward position? Check out the difference between him playing the power and small forward positions (courtesy of 82games.com):
Seems like there is a pretty considerable difference with him on the wing and with him in the post. With Beasley on the wing, his shooting percentage is much lower and that probably has to do with him shooting so much from the outside and shooting so poorly. According to HoopData.com, Beasley shot just 37% on two-pointers beyond 10 feet today. He also only shot 27% from three-point land.
With him playing so far away from the basket, he seems more likely to take jumpers instead of attacking the basket. When he’s driving strong to the basket, he looks unstoppable. But he usually needs to be pretty close to the basket to get aggressive. So far in his career, he’s been far too resigned to taking contested jumpers and hoping they go in.
When you look at Synergy Sports numbers for Beasley, his most efficient ways of scoring are all heading towards the basket. He shot 67.6% in transition this year with only five attempts coming from three. He scored on 58.2% of his shots off of offensive rebounds. He made 59.6% of his shots when he cut to the basket. The guy can score and score better than most when he’s playing in a linear, progressive manner. But look at his spot-up jumpers (38.4%) and how often he took them (25.9% of his plays, which is highest percentage for any type of play) and you can see why his numbers average out to being so underwhelming.
One last thing that concerns me about Michael Beasley is his mental makeup. He’s had some issues so far heading into the league and since he’s been in the NBA. I don’t really want to get into what they are but for someone who seems to be so aloof and capable of getting depressed fairly easily, to acquire him and have him possibly sitting on the bench while a deep frontcourt hogs all of the minutes doesn’t really seem like something I’d want to experiment with him.
Look at this highlight trailer from the documentary Gunnin’ For That #1 Spot, which followed eight high school players (including Tyreke Evans and Donté Greene) leading up to an All-Star game in New York City.
First of all, it’s cool to see Lamont Peterson (Reke’s trainer) in this film because he lends a lot of great insight into the progression of Tyreke along with how the high school basketball scene treats and ranks these young players. Second, the line he gives Donté Greene before he drives to the basket and scores is pretty funny. But overall, it gives a good glimpse into the psyche of who Michael Beasley is. It doesn’t appear to have changed ALL THAT MUCH since he played in this game to going to Kansas State to spending two years in the NBA. He’s kind of a goofy guy. There’s a scene in the movie in which he purposefully films himself running into a wall. Maybe he wouldn’t be bad for team chemistry like Isaiah Rider or Zach Randolph were bad for chemistry but maybe he wouldn’t take things seriously and he’d have more of a Joey Dorsey affect.
Throwing a guy like that into a position in which he isn’t likely to excel while battling for minutes in one of the now deepest frontcourts in the NBA seems like a bad idea to me. Maybe the Kings could pursue this idea and it would work. But with the way this franchise is rebuilding itself, I just don’t find it to be a risk worth taking.
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Ryan
I thought about possibly picking up Beasley when I heard he was available, but now that we drafted both Cousins and Whiteside, the front court is too crowded to take his contract on as well… He would be an amazing addition to get for little to nothing and I believe a change of scenary would help to jump start his career, but we are so crowded up front, I can’t see it working. The only guy up front that would be expandable to make room for Beasley, based on skills, would be Brockman. Even then it would be hard to keep all our forwards and centers happy and getting plenty of playing time with all those guys.
CareyScurry
I think the answer is for someone (probably not the Kings) to give Beasley an extended shot at the three spot, despite his poor performance in limited minutes at the position last year (at 8% of team minutes, sample size issues overpower any other conclusions we might draw). In particular, I’d like to invite comparisons to a player that was one his comps coming out of school (indeed, was the guy on his nbadraft.net page): Carmelo Anthony.
Coming out of school, they had similar physical attributes (all data here is from draftexpress, by the way):
Height (w/o shoes): Anthony 6’6.25″, Beasley 6’7″
Weight: Anthony 233 lbs, Beasley 239 lbs
Wingspan: Anthony 7’0″, Beasley 7’0.25″
Reach: Anthony 8’11.5″, Beasley 8’11″
Standing Vertical: Anthony 30.5″, Beasley 30″
Max Vertical: Anthony 33.5″, Beasley 35″
Agility Test: Anthony 11.40 sec, Beasley 11.06 sec
3/4 Court Sprint: Anthony 3.15 sec, Beasley 3.24 sec
Bench Press: Anthony 7, Beasley 19
OK, that was then – but this is now, you might counter – Anthony is a far better player than Beasley. Yes, but Anthony is in his prime, Beasley is only 21. Let’s compare their statistics at the same ages (I apologize if the following formatting is awkward) – this are per 40 minutes and tempo adjusted:
[Here, I'll note that both were/are well below average defenders, in part because they weren't asked to play a lot of it (or much of an NBA version of it anyway) in college.]
Where they differ, it’s usually to make Carmelo look a bit more like a small forward and Beasley a bit more like an interior player – but these aren’t hugely different statistical profiles. More than even the differences in rebounds, assist/turnover numbers, or even fouls drawn – the one thing that really stands out when you look at them is that Carmelo, from the get-go, got heavy minutes – Beasley has not. Part of that is on Beasley and his decision making on the court (just because you’re relatively good from 18 feet doesn’t mean you should shoot it, particularly early in the clock), but moreso I think its a failure on Miami’s part – if they wanted him to get better, they need to force feed him time, particularly once it became clear that Dorell Wright, Daequan Cook, and company were not the future of the organization.
I don’t think he’s Carmelo II. For one, those qualitative differences mentioned above matter – particularly Beasley’s oddly low (for his physical skills) foul drawing rate and assist numbers. Also, it’s unfair to expect anyone to improve the way Carmelo has over time – and Beasley likely lacks some of the intangibles that made Mr. Anthony into Melo, while Michael’s just SuperBeas. Of added concern is Beasley’s defense on the perimeter, but I think his issues there (particularly with regard to how he closes out on shooters) might be more fixable than with some of the concerns with him down low (average size, so-so motor).
Now, if the above is at all reasonable, you might wonder why not Sacramento? Though expanding his three-point prowess may come over time, that’s still an afterthought for him – not what you need from a club with your frontcourt + Tyreke as half your backcourt. Plus, Beasley’s value is likely (in the future) to come from being a high-usage, average efficiency player. That’s useful, but with Cousins and Evans around, you might rather see the ball in their hands. There’s also a contract timing issue at work with him – if he pans out, it’ll be in time for him to be an expensive free agent, if not, you’ve paid him a decent amount (as a #2) for whatever he did.
Anyway, food for thought…
-footnotes-
* that difference in rebounding is on the defensive end and, in part, a function of role
* while Beasley wasn’t great from >10′ this year, he was better than league average from there the previous season, commensurate with anecdotal reviews… he’s a mid-range shooter as much as anything.
http://davissportsdeli.com/wordpress/ Patrick
Great breakdown Zach. I don’t think Beasley is a good fit for the Kings. We’re seeing more and more that players do well as a function of being in the right place at the right time rather than as a function of their individual talents (ex: Jared Dudley, Zach Randolph, Channing Frye etc). Everybody’s down on Beasley right now, but put him in the right system (Golden State? Phoenix?) and I think you’ll see a big change in production. Not to mention perception.
Matt
I may be the only one who thinks it is a good idea, but I absolutely think the Kings should trade for Beasley.
I have to firmly disagree with the assessment that he would not get time on the Kings. He would be the most talented 4 the Kings have instantly. The argument against his attitude is fair, but remember the criticisms of CWebb when the Kings acquired him? Obviously they are two different players, but the Kings have several players that will need kinder-care in the next few years: Cousins, Whiteside, etc. If he doesn’t work out, what did the Kings lose? Cap space that they aren’t going to use anyways?
I have some other ideas too.
For some reason, I believe people overvalue Carl Landry. He a terribly inconsistent rebounder, and is undersized as a 4, making him more effective coming off the bench. He is at best an average 4, just look at his numbers.
For that matter, I believe neither Dalembert nor Landry will be a King beyond this season. So all this “depth” will evaporate in 10 months anyways.
Why not pick up a guy with more upside than anyone in the Kings front court (sans Cousins) and put him in a lower pressure environment and let him grow into the player he can become. He can be had for nothing!!! What was everyone thinking the Kings should do with their cap space? No impact player is coming to SAC!
Remember, he is only 21, which is 5 years younger than Landry. I don’t see the logic in trying to locking up Landry after this year for what, 5 years starting at ~8 mil a year finishing with him make ~12 mil a year well into his 30′s as an undersized 4. No thank you Kenny Thomas 2.0.
Beasley needs a change of scenary more than anything and his game would be a great compliment to Cousins in the front court. This would free the Kings up to be a player at the trade deadline where they can move Dalembert and/or Landry to a playoff team trying to get over the top or a team trying to get under the cap. The Kings can transform those two guys into more assests/picks/prospects. That model seems to be working well for the Thunder, don’t you think?
pimp
get rid of thompsons weak ass and pick up beasly!!! not that hard to me, id take beasly over any of our PF we have, he could start and move laundry to second string, we all saw how much better he was coming off the bench than starting
http://rayanselmo.wordpress.com Ray A.
Pimp, I’m gonna tell the folks at the skilled nursing facility where you live that they should not let you near a keyboard anymore. The only thing worse than your spelling is your b-ball analysis. Beasley is not only not an improvement over Thompson, he’s also a bit of a head case — he’s had issues with the chronic, has already been in rehab once, and managed to get in trouble during the NBA’s rookie orientation. (That takes massive f-up skillz.) This is NOT the guy I’d want hanging around the Big Kid (Cousins).
Beasley is not the answer for the Kings’ woes. #1 on Petrie’s shopping list right now should be a shooting guard with 3-pt. range.
Is Michael Beasley A Risk Worth Taking?
6I received this email from Connor, a reader, wondering about Michael Beasley and the “everything must go” sale the Miami Heat are having on his behalf.
Connor brings up an intriguing idea. Using the lure of free agency that Miami has decided to reshape their franchise with against them in order to pilfer assets from the organization. A team like the Sacramento Kings – rebuilding by acquiring young talent and future assets – is in perfect position to do something like this.
The problem though is figuring out where Michael Beasley fits in with the future of this organization. The asking price would be relatively small. The Kings would actually be doing Miami a favor by acquiring the #2 pick in the 2008 draft and absorbing his relatively small contract (two years, $11.2 million). In return, a conditional second round pick would be the likely asking price and even if it wasn’t conditional, the Kings could offer up a pick in 2015 or later when the Kings should be firmly cemented in the playoffs for years to come.
However, the Kings would have to figure out where he fits in.
The frontcourt is very loaded and primed to be a presence/strength for the Kings this year. Here’s the tentative depth chart for the small forward, power forward and center positions:
C: DeMarcus Cousins, Samuel Dalembert, Hassan Whiteside
PF: Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Jon Brockman
SF: Donté Greene, Omri Casspi
Doesn’t look like there’s a lot of room in there for a #2 pick who hasn’t even turned 22 years old yet. Michael Beasley is probably best used as a power forward and with Carl Landry, Jason Thompson and the Brockness Monster all trying to carve out playing time for their respective résumés, it seems unlikely he’d get a lot of run at the 4. And he’s obviously not a center so he’s unlikely to get any burn at the center position.
So would it behoove the Kings to acquire Michael Beasley for next to nothing and then try to slide him into the small forward position? Check out the difference between him playing the power and small forward positions (courtesy of 82games.com):
Seems like there is a pretty considerable difference with him on the wing and with him in the post. With Beasley on the wing, his shooting percentage is much lower and that probably has to do with him shooting so much from the outside and shooting so poorly. According to HoopData.com, Beasley shot just 37% on two-pointers beyond 10 feet today. He also only shot 27% from three-point land.
With him playing so far away from the basket, he seems more likely to take jumpers instead of attacking the basket. When he’s driving strong to the basket, he looks unstoppable. But he usually needs to be pretty close to the basket to get aggressive. So far in his career, he’s been far too resigned to taking contested jumpers and hoping they go in.
When you look at Synergy Sports numbers for Beasley, his most efficient ways of scoring are all heading towards the basket. He shot 67.6% in transition this year with only five attempts coming from three. He scored on 58.2% of his shots off of offensive rebounds. He made 59.6% of his shots when he cut to the basket. The guy can score and score better than most when he’s playing in a linear, progressive manner. But look at his spot-up jumpers (38.4%) and how often he took them (25.9% of his plays, which is highest percentage for any type of play) and you can see why his numbers average out to being so underwhelming.
One last thing that concerns me about Michael Beasley is his mental makeup. He’s had some issues so far heading into the league and since he’s been in the NBA. I don’t really want to get into what they are but for someone who seems to be so aloof and capable of getting depressed fairly easily, to acquire him and have him possibly sitting on the bench while a deep frontcourt hogs all of the minutes doesn’t really seem like something I’d want to experiment with him.
Look at this highlight trailer from the documentary Gunnin’ For That #1 Spot, which followed eight high school players (including Tyreke Evans and Donté Greene) leading up to an All-Star game in New York City.
First of all, it’s cool to see Lamont Peterson (Reke’s trainer) in this film because he lends a lot of great insight into the progression of Tyreke along with how the high school basketball scene treats and ranks these young players. Second, the line he gives Donté Greene before he drives to the basket and scores is pretty funny. But overall, it gives a good glimpse into the psyche of who Michael Beasley is. It doesn’t appear to have changed ALL THAT MUCH since he played in this game to going to Kansas State to spending two years in the NBA. He’s kind of a goofy guy. There’s a scene in the movie in which he purposefully films himself running into a wall. Maybe he wouldn’t be bad for team chemistry like Isaiah Rider or Zach Randolph were bad for chemistry but maybe he wouldn’t take things seriously and he’d have more of a Joey Dorsey affect.
Throwing a guy like that into a position in which he isn’t likely to excel while battling for minutes in one of the now deepest frontcourts in the NBA seems like a bad idea to me. Maybe the Kings could pursue this idea and it would work. But with the way this franchise is rebuilding itself, I just don’t find it to be a risk worth taking.
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